Abstract:

Scenario modeling: Predicting resource requirements and optomising the use of available resources for management of invasive alien species

Rainer M Krug1, Ian Rushworth2
1ESE, University Paris Sud XI, Orsay, France.
2Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, PO Box 13053, Cascades 3202, South Africa.

Conservation is in strong competition for limited financial resources with other sectors, and generally underfunded. Consequently, one needs to get the most out of the resources available and effectively motivate for additional funds. As different as these two aspects seem initially, they converge to one approach: simulations and scenario building. Both have been in use for a long time, although in the form of basic rules such as “Clear alien plants before 25% canopy cover is reached”, and scenarios like “if I do not clear Acacias upriver, they will re-invade downriver”. Although these approaches are adequate for on-the-ground conservation, this approach is not sufficient to leverage funding, especially as long term consequences of decisions are often not obvious.
With increasing knowledge and computer power, the use of computer models to predict the impact of funding levels (budget scenarios) under different management scenarios has become possible. These models predict the impact of different funding levels in order to motivate for appropriate funding, while at the same time provide a tool to develop and optimise management approaches given a particular budget scenario. These models can be designed so that they connect with other ecosystem service models, allowing for the quantification of the impact on different ecosystem services as a measure of management performance.
In this talk, a generic simulation model which fulfills these requirements is presented: it simulates the spread of three different invasive alien species in the Drakensberg under different budget constraints. The budget and the management scenarios are used as input parameters for the model. The model output, cover maps of the different alien species, can be evaluated with basic measures (e.g. area covered, impact on priority habitat) or fed into other ecosystem models to obtain other measures (e.g. impact on water production) of management.

Presentation Topic

Scenario modeling: Predicting resource requirements and optomising the use of available resources for management of invasive alien species

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ESE, University Paris Sud XI, Orsay, France.

 

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